Trump Effect Lifts Global and Indian Markets
The stock markets did better on Monday, starting the week on a positive note
On Episode 486 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Aashish Sommaiyaa, Executive Director and CEO WhiteOak Capital Asset Management as well as Dr Irfan Nooruddin, the Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani Professor of Indian Politics at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.
(00:00) Stories of the Day
(01:00) Trump effect lifts global, Indian markets
(03:34) Which way are oil prices headed now?
(06:32) Stock picking in an era of market and economic uncertainty.
(21:00) What will a Trump administration mean for India, the new vulnerabilities ?
(28:35) Who is not at DAVOS?
(29:43) Billionaire wealth across the globe surged by $2 trillion in 2024 to $15 trillion at a rate three times faster than the previous year, a study showed on Monday.
NOTE: This transcript contains the host's monologue and includes interview transcripts by a machine. Human eyes have gone through the script but there might still be errors in some of the text, so please refer to the audio in case you need to clarify any part. If you want to get in touch regarding any feedback, you can drop us a message on [email protected].
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Good morning, it's Tuesday, the 21st of January and this is Govindraj Ethiraj, headquartered and broadcasting and streaming like always from Mumbai, India’s financial capital.
And that brings us to the top stories and themes.
Our top stories & themes
Trump effect lifts global, Indian markets
Which way are oil prices headed now ?
Stockpicking in an era of market and economic uncertainty.
What will a Trump administration mean for India, the new vulnerabilities ?
Billionaire wealth across the globe surged by $2 trillion in 2024 to $15 trillion at a rate three times faster than the previous year, a study showed on Monday.
Who is not at DAVOS ?
Markets
The stock markets did better on Monday, starting the week on and closing on a positive note with the 30-share Sensex gaining 454 points to settle at 77,073.44.
The NSE Nifty50 closed at 23,344.75 with gains of 141 points
Among broader markets, the Nifty Midcap100 and the Nifty Smallcap100 were both up around 1% each.
Overseas investors have net sold about $6.5 billion of local stocks and bonds in January so far, the steepest monthly outflow since October 2023, Reuters computed.
For those looking hard for green shoots, Wipro stock price jumped about 8% on Monday, set for their best day in nearly four years.
Wipro, like Infosys and TCS has signalled a revival in demand.
Last week, Wipro beat third-quarter profit estimates and forecast revenue in the current quarter could increase sequentially by up to 1%, compared with no growth last quarter, Reuters quoted the company saying, adding that it was also seeing discretionary spending slowly coming back.
Kotak Mahindra Bank was the other big gainer, rising 9.2% after reporting a 10% rise in quarterly profit, helped by higher lending income.
And the markets could gain on the back of reports that Donald Trump will hold off from imposing China-specific tariffs on his first day in office propelled US equity futures higher on Monday.
The dollar slumped, Bloomberg reported.
The incoming administration has pivoted toward starting his second term with potential engagement with Beijing rather than another trade war, according to people familiar with the plans.
Other reports are also suggesting some recalibration in the tariff move, or preceded by some study before actually launching them.
This could be good news for the markets who have been jittery for some time on this count as well.
Rupee is Up
The Indian rupee closed modestly stronger on Monday as a softer dollar gave Asian currencies some breathing room, Reuters reported.
The rupee closed at 86.5675 against the U.S. dollar, up from its close at 86.61 in the previous session.
The dollar index was down 0.2% at 109.1 while Asian currencies were mostly higher between 0.1% and 0.7%.
The offshore yuan rose to a two-week high thanks to a friendly call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday and better-than-expected fourth-quarter Chinese economic data.
Oil Prices
And now our energy segment.
Well, much of it is expectedly linked to what Trump will do or not in literally the first hours of his presidency.
Oil prices fell on Monday as traders stood by for more clarity on the Trump administration's policy moves linked to energy.
Brent crude futures declined by 85 cents, or 1.05% to $79.94.
President-elect Donald Trump is poised to invoke emergency powers as part of his plan to unleash domestic energy production while seeking to reverse President Joe Biden’s actions to combat climate change, according to Bloomberg.
The move is set to be among an array of actions Trump will take — starting hours after he’s sworn in on Monday — to deliver on campaign promises to boost domestic energy output.
The president-elect is prepared to compel policy shifts that would enable new oil and gas development on federal lands, while directing a rollback of Biden-era climate regulations, said the people who asked not be named due to the confidentiality of the information.
All this has left oil prices somewhat muted given that supply levels could rise.
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This segment was supported by India Energy Week 2025 scheduled from February 11-14, 2025, in New Delhi and you can register for the same using the link in the show notes.
Gold Prices Firmed Up on Monday
Gold firmed on Monday on a softer dollar as investors awaited Donald Trump's inauguration speech later in the day for insights into his policies that are expected to provide clarity on the inflation outlook and Federal Reserve's future rate decisions.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,711.29 per ounce.
The dollar index was on the defensive at the start of the week making bullion more attractive to foreign buyers.
"If we happened to hear a more conciliatory or softer tone from President Trump regarding trade and tariff policies, this could alleviate inflationary concerns, which may see the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields recede, and gold is potentially one asset that could benefit from this scenario," an analyst told Reuters.
Gold is used as an inflation hedge, but higher interest rates dampen its appeal.
Trump's broad trade tariff policies are expected to further ignite inflation, potentially increasing bullion's safe-haven appeal.
"Gold's status as a financial asset makes it likely exempt from broad-based tariffs, and we therefore assign a 10% probability to a 10% effective tariff on gold being introduced within the next 12 months," Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Goldman Sachs earlier raised its central bank gold demand forecast, but kept its long-term bullion price prediction unchanged at $3,000 per ounce by mid-2026 on expectation of fewer interest rate cuts in 2025, Reuters reported.
Stock Picking in Tough Times
We are in an era of relative economic and market uncertainty for reasons both external and internal.
There are several somewhat broader questions, including whether domestic demand and Indian company performance will start looking up.
The issues that are somewhat beyond our control are obviously what Trump will do and whether he will do everything he threatened to do.
And how should all of that be our own outlook of stocks and their performance in 2025.
I reached out to Aashish Somaiyaa, CEO of the Mumbai-based WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund, which manages around $2 billion in assets across several schemes.
I began by asking him about what were the factors playing on the market as we entered the 3rd week of 2025 and then his firm’s approach to stock picking.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
Aashish Sommaiyaa: So you know recently I was on a television show and you know quite inadvertently I was asked that what do you expect when Mr. Trump comes to power? So I ended up asking the person you know are you the same guy you were four years back? There's a lot of extrapolation being made from his past statements.
I don't think anybody is going to conduct themselves the same way that they were four years back and I think all this talk about tariff probably you know tariff is just a means to an end. I don't think there'll be actually huge tariffs. I mean if you don't do 1, 2, 3, 4 things then I'm kind of threatening you with tariffs whereas if you see the market, market is already assuming that there will be tariffs to overcome tariffs there will be devaluation because of China's devaluation competitive devaluation in other parts of the world.
So I think market is kind of run ahead of itself trying to factor many many things but I don't think it's exactly how it may actually play out you know. So we should be open-minded we have to see exactly how he conducts himself plus of course not the same person not the same administration you know I think the entire lay of the land has changed.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right so let's come to the Indian market the three or four factors that we know now one is of course earnings have slowed down the second is valuations by some if not many institutional investors are still being seen as on the higher side and the overall economy projections for growth are also now slightly lower and there are some challenges on the demand side. So this is all that we know for which there is some data to support it. So how are you seeing the market at this point?
Aashish Sommaiyaa: See my sense is that it will take us the first half of 2025 although your first question about Mr Trump and like I said we just don't know we have to see how it plays out apart from that clearly the kind of slump we had in the first half of FY 2025 largely because of government spending maybe unintended consolidation many of those things playing out we have to get out of the woods on that we have to see US policy clearly.
So my sense is that first half of 2025 calendar year we are going to be meandering maybe 10% up 10% down we need more clarity on external macro we need more clarity in terms of how our economy comes out of the temporary some kind of temporary depression that we are in even corporate earnings we have to see how things shape up in the next three to six months. So I think that even 2024 how good it was I don't think 2025 is going to be that good definitely not the first half maybe I'm more hopeful about the second half once we have clarity on multiple uncertainties that we are passing through right now.
Govindraj Ethiraj: And how are you seeing companies who are delivering let's say better performances but not blew out performances and do you think that is good for the stock prices or is it just keeping them where they are?
Aashish Sommaiyaa: What is happening is that also on valuations and obviously then juxtaposing with corporate performance at different points in time there are different reasons why the market does what it does and you know there is different points or factors driving the market. So now let us say in the last three to six months we have seen market correcting because of Trump trade and then of course you know our economic performance or into the government consolidation etc. I think it's a healthy consolidation or a welcome development for whatever the reasons may be I think I'm very happy that the market is not doing too much let's say if you were to say that 1200 nifty EPS one year forward then I think things are at least from the large cap front things are kind of coming to a reasonable level otherwise you would have feared a lot more downside.
Instead of talking plus minus 10% we would be talking lot bigger numbers on volatility if we had not seen already what has happened in the last three months. Instead of 2024 just one way up what has happened in the last few months has given us a lot more comfort even if you see for example small cap mid cap in a lot of stocks order books being built into the prices lot of bullishness being built into the prices. So from every perspective this consolidation or even a 10 to 15% correction is more than welcome because from here on then we can expect that things will move in line with earnings and it's stop picking which will work.
See the other challenge with 2024 was that it was not so much stop picking you know certain macro trends or certain factors were driving entire sector after sector and there were some others which were just not in the attention. Say for example if you were to look at some of the large private banks if you look at some of the large NBFCs even if you look at smaller financial services or NBFCs or lenders what was happening was that what's not working is not working and what is working everything seems to be flying. So the market was not discerning or discriminating in 2024 everything was in tandem.
Why I said last three to six months we are happy because it's kind of mixed up performances I think stop picking starts working with this correction everybody starts looking more on the earnings and things become more earnings focused which means things become more stock picking focused and that is something which we are always happier with rather than seeing market being driven in tandem by certain factors or micro-tailwinds.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right including narrative. So let me come to stock picking in a moment but before that how are things looking on the supply side in terms of investors coming into your fund and are there any trends within that that you've seen?
Aashish Sommaiyaa: What we've seen is that investor interest is still holding up very strong. You know that you know last three to four years number of new investors not only opening broking accounts but even mutual fund accounts SIPs the whole trend has been very encouraging and we've seen growth by the millions. What I've seen is that a lot of our fraternity a lot of my peers a lot of commentators they seem to be attributing it largely to cyclical factors where the market is booming it is attracting a lot of people.
My sense is it's not just cyclical I think a lot of it is structural also because today you know 21, 22, 23, 24 you take any age there are some two to two and a half crore or two and a quarter crore people out here and in last 20-25 years whether it is digitisation whether it is absolute level of interest rates whether it is our regulatory architecture everything has changed. So my sense is that a lot of youngsters joining capital markets directly or through mutual funds I think that's a trend here to stay. I don't think that is going anywhere.
So very very positive on the supply side my sense is that we are going to see this kind of momentum see market going up and down it will always motivate some people more and market going down might discourage some people. Those delta changes will be there but I think overall my sense is that this influx of people into capital markets is a structural thing it's a trend which is here to stay and I don't see any serious challenge as far as investor interest is concerned. You know if interest rates were to rise dramatically or if there were to be a scam or something really back-breaking which destroys motivation of people that would be an outlier thing but otherwise things being as they are I think that investor interest is here to stay we have not seen anything to tell us that people are getting demotivated from investing.
Govindraj Ethiraj: And what's your let's say proportion of bulk flows versus SIP flows? I mean I know you're a more institutional focused but or large investor focused but having said that.
Aashish Sommaiyaa: So White Oak just very quickly to give you lay of the land we are about a 7 billion as an FII managing money for foreigners and about 3 billion is domestic. Now in the last two and a half years our mutual fund which is retail is well over 2 billion in size. So if I see the mutual fund for instance we are like more than 610,000 unique clients very retail all across the country.
We have our ears and eyes plugged to the retail landscape. I've been tracking this 25 years now always worked on retail distribution meeting retail clients and I think that the interest is pretty much there. The mutual fund industry what MF Sahiye which has been done for the last nearly a decade now.
I think that is really helped and of course digitisation has killed information arbitrage has made discovery very very seamless. So I think these trends are definitely helping us.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right okay so let me come back to stock picking. So what would you say are your principles of stock picking? The principles not the stocks themselves.
Aashish Sommaiyaa: So two things I think White Oak focusses on both I think stock picking and I'll answer that but I'll also bring to notice that you know in our industry stock picking is the hero. Typically that is where all the folklore and all the credibility and credentials are shared. What White Oak also focusses a lot on is portfolio construction.
So as far as stock picking is concerned look we believe that we have to buy great businesses at attractive valuation and there's no third way to do it. The point is what does one perceive as great business and what does one mean by attractive valuation. So for us great businesses are you know two or three things.
One is that they need to be in sectors which have long-term growth potential. Second thing about great business is great management and execution. So this is great business.
Now the point is that valuation. So typically what we do is we have our own in-house proprietary valuation model we call it Oppo Finco framework. Basically what we do is it's ad nauseum repeated that value of a business is present value of its future cash flows.
It's not future EPS or PAT or anything. So one is we value everything at cash flow free cash flow basis and second is only the economic profit or the excess free cash flow which is that we do present value only for free cash flow over and above cost of capital. So every business that we evaluate we segregate it into an operating company and a financing company.
The financing company is the one which holds the land, factory, the capital financing. That is all with the financing arm of the company and we simulate as if the financing arm of the company is providing all of this for a cost to the operating arm of the company. Now the operating arm of the company has to do the sales, marketing, product etc and they have to generate a revenue.
The first thing we do from the revenue of the operating company is to subtract the charges for using the factory and the capital and stuff. So what we value is the operating company and we value the operating company only for the cash flow that it produces in excess of the opportunity costs. Generally speaking the market uses many heuristics like EPS multiplied by PE.
Typically people use PE multiples. Now what happens is that when you use PE multiples and when you apply multiple to a particular profit, generally what happens is that these profits are not free cash flow terms. Are those profits even in excess of the cost of capital, efficiencies of companies.
So generally what we do is that we do everything on free cash flow basis and free cash flow only over and above cost of capital. And the second thing which I mentioned, so this is about what type of stocks and what type of valuation model we are following. Plus of course this valuation model is not applied ad nauseam to the entire industry.
It is for intrasector evaluation. The other important thing is like I mentioned in a portfolio construction. So you must have noticed that every second year or third year the best performing fund, fund house and fund manager keeps changing.
Now why that happens is because in everybody's investing style or stock picking there are certain biases or there are certain favourites. People want to pick a certain type of stock or they have a preferred recipe. But you know as I always say the benchmark, like you say in Hindi, so the benchmark is such that it has anything and everything.
So if I insist on picking stocks of a particular type, what will happen is that under certain conditions I will massively outperform the benchmark. When the conditions change, I will underperform the benchmark. So you know look at it this way.
Five years back it was growth. When 2019-20 came it was all about quality and defensives. When 20 to 23 it was all about value.
When factors and macros change, best performing funds and fund managers also keep on changing. So while Roitok does bottom up stock picking, at the same time we are very very aware that what are we competing against. We are competing against the benchmark and how do we construct the portfolio in a way that it keeps us instead to outperform the benchmark on a consistent basis.
So a lot of emphasis on portfolio construction. We call it balanced portfolio construction which is basically factor balanced and sector balanced and you take only the stock specific risk.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. Last question. We've got the budget coming up.
Everyone has some kind of demand, request, wishlist. Do you have any as an industry or otherwise?
Aashish Sommaiyaa: I would say that if we don't make any changes that's a good start. You know because we have to get used to whatever changes we got last year and maybe even before that. So if there is no change at all, I'm happy because then it takes time for people to get used to and start factoring things in.
And we just had the last budget maybe eight nine months back. So I hope that there are no changes at all and if at all something is going to be done or something is going to be hurt then I think we should reduce STTs and those kind of transactional things. You know look we reinstated capital gains.
Now we should make markets efficient and you know we should not have all this STT and this kind of friction when it comes to trading securities. And plus you know STT is something which is way above target. It's only going to rise and it's going to become bigger and bigger friction.
So I think that is something that should be genuinely reviewed. Otherwise I have nothing to add you know on long-term gain, short-term gain etc. I just feel that once we harmonise, we decide something and stick to it.
Govindraj Ethiraj: And more premium on the consistency of policy rather than the evolution of it. Absolutely. Ashish, thank you so much for joining me.
Aashish Sommaiyaa: Thank you. Thank you. It's an honour.
Decoding Trump For India
There are two questions, one of which I partly posed earlier, which is which version of Trump are we looking at and how will that matter or not for the world.
And the second, how should India be gearing up for Trump, on both economic and non-economic, geopolitical fronts ?
I reached out to Dr Irfan Nooruddin, the Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani Professor of Indian Politics at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.
And I began by asking what had changed between Donlad Trump’s last stint and now.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
Irfan Nooruddin: The main thing that's changed is that the world has changed. Let's think of this as, we're going to get to see a sequel of a movie that played four years ago and had a little bit of a gap in between, and now we get to see what the sequel looks like. And on the one hand, the fact that it's a sequel means that we know a little bit about the Trump playbook.
We know how he thinks about international relations. We know his general scepticism for multilateral institutions, his willingness to sort of rip up established playbooks on alliances and partners and all of that. Maybe his fans would say he's a disruptor.
But we also know the limits of that approach because the first Trump administration, while doing a lot of what he talked about, didn't do quite as much as some people thought he would do. But the big issue is, of course, that the interim, the Biden administration, followed through in a lot of the same ways, even though the rhetoric might have been different and the tone might have been different. The content of a lot of the Biden policy was quite similar.
The anti-Chinaness, for instance, remained a constant. The commitment to the Quad as a way of balancing against China remained pretty constant. For all of Trump's rhetoric, Biden was not a huge multilateralist, let's do global governance, let's be out in the world.
He was more reserved in the use of American power around the world, even though a lot of people were very frustrated with him on that. So Trump comes back for all the rhetoric about America being in a bad place and all of that, inheriting a very strong economy, but also a world that has really not had a lot of global governance and multilateral energy over the last four years either. There's a lot less to disrupt than there was in 2016 when he was taking over from eight years of Obama and an Obama that was really trying to rebuild America's image after the damage of the George Bush administrations globally.
So I think the big change, I would say, is that the world now has a sense of who Donald Trump is. He's not going to be quite the shock to the system that he was eight years ago. A lot of other things have also changed as a result of the pandemic.
More countries have, in their own ways, become less dependent on the global economy or tried to shore up their global supply chains so that it's nearshoring, fenshoring all the words that we've heard. But I think countries understood that globalisation, as had been the case in the 2000s, the 2010s, was not working for them and have pulled back in. And so even Trump's threats about massive tariffs globally and uniform tariffs, I think have been met with a lot more sort of scepticism and maybe even sort of poking fun at than would have been the case eight years ago when people would have said, oh my god, this is going to truly disrupt the world.
Now I think there's a lot of, we don't actually think you can do what you're talking about doing. So just to summarise all of that, I think the key is that Trump will be a disruptor. There's a lot of American influence globally that we often take for granted or we don't really recognise.
And that's partly that for all of its weaknesses, America has been the big champion of multilateral institutions and of global governance. Trump eroded that. Biden didn't really rebuild it for the most part.
Trump will further erode it. So I think globally we have to be thinking about a world in which international institutions play a much less of a role and there's a lot more bilateral transactionalism with the United States.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And let's come to the India part now. One of India's big fears obviously has been tariffs.
It seems to me that if he is set or likely to either not push tariffs or even dial back on tariffs with countries like China, because he's now opened multi-negotiating fronts with them and the outcome of which one at least is already evident in the form of TikTok, it doesn't appear like there would be a rush to slap tariffs everywhere else because China was clearly the main target, at least the most demonstrable target.
Anyway, so to come back to India, if we were to take the tariff threat or keep the tariff threat aside for now, which is the economic part of it, what else are you seeing?
Irfan Nooruddin: The first significant high-level meeting that Trump is having is with the foreign ministers of the Quad countries, including external affairs minister Jaishankar. And so that's a signal I think that Trump once again understands that the signalling of taking the Quad as the first official meeting as president says that, okay, the Quad remains important. India is obviously a key part of that Quad.
It signals also that he understands and his administration will come here to have China as the most significant strategic threat to the United States going forward. That is to India's benefit because there is no version, either on the Democrat side or the Republican side, it's bipartisan that any response to China internationally has to involve India as a significant US partner. I think you'll come here to see investment in the US-India defence and military production relationship.
We've already seen Indian entities being taken off the foreign entities list as a way of being able to push maybe more nuclear, civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries. All of that is to the good. I do think Trump fundamentally doesn't understand international economics in a way that is not to India's advantage.
And there's two things over here. He's obsessed with trade deficits and trade surpluses. And so any country that has a net trade surplus with the United States always has to worry that at some point Trump fixates on that and says, you're taking advantage of us, et cetera.
So there's a nuance to international trade that Trump doesn't appreciate and I think fixates on that particular dimension. But the second is that India's version of international trade vis-a-vis the United States isn't manufacturing goods, it isn't agricultural goods, it is the export of services. And I think that's one where you already see it playing out in the fight within the MAGA camp on H1B visas.
But the ways in which that plays out has real implications for the ability of India's real engine of growth, the software companies and the service industry to continue to grow the partnership with American companies and with American businesses. And there's always been a bit of a tension over there because Atman Nirbhar Bharat and India's own goal of generating jobs at home was always going to be seen as a little bit at odds with America first. But I think that's where I would be paying attention to.
It's less on sort of the tariffs, which is really much more, as you said, China-directed, might even be more Mexico-directed because that's where real goods are flowing across borders. Services on the other hand, which involves much more feature-looking data and the flow of talent, that I think India's vulnerable to and it's a bit of a wild card as to how Trump decides to play those dimensions of international economic policy.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Irfan, thank you so much for joining me.
Irfan Nooruddin: You're very welcome. Thank you.
Who Is Not At Davos?
It’s that time of year when the great and the good and a crush of mediapersons gather at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Like always, heads of state, politicians and business leaders are set to attend the four-day event in the Alpine resort.
What is illustrative is who is not attending.
Donald Trump is attending incidentally, though virtually on Thursday.
Many will not be there virtually or in person.
Leading that list are Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as well as French President Emmanuel Macron, Italy’s leader Giorgia Meloni and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Of the Group of Seven (G7) industrialized nations — which includes the U.S., Europe’s biggest economies, Canada and Japan — the only head of state attending the summit is outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, reports said.
WEF says this year’s event — the 55th annual forum, which runs from Monday to Thursday — will convene close to 3,000 leaders from over 130 countries including 350 government leaders, including 60 heads of state and governments, “will gather in Davos-Klosters to address pressing challenges and shape emerging opportunities.”
Billionaire Wealth
Speaking of Davos, Billionaire wealth across the globe surged by $2 trillion in 2024 to $15 trillion at a rate three times faster than the previous year, a study showed on Monday.
In its flagship inequity report released every year on the first day of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, Oxfam International contrasted the huge jump in the billionaire wealth with the number of people living in poverty barely having changed since 1990, PTI reported.
The wealth of billionaires in Asia increased by $299 billion in 2024, Oxfam said while predicting that there will be at least five trillionaires within a decade from now.
The year 2024 saw 204 new billionaires getting minted -- an average of nearly four every week. Asia itself got 41 new billionaires in the year.
In its report titled 'Takers, not Makers', Oxfam said the richest 1 per cent in the Global North extracted $30 million an hour from the Global South through the financial systems in 2023.
It further said that 60 per cent of billionaire wealth is now derived from inheritance, monopoly power or crony connections, showing that "extreme billionaire wealth is largely unmerited."
Oxfam calculated that 36 per cent of billionaire wealth is now inherited.
It said that the research by Forbes found that every billionaire under 30 has inherited their wealth, while UBS estimated that over 1,000 of today's billionaires will pass on more than $5.2 trillion to their heirs over the next two to three decades.
