Markets Digest Fresh Round Of Tariff Volatility
Asia-Pacific markets climbed after US President Donald Trump paused tariffs on some consumer electronics
On Episode 557 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Karan Taurani, SVP-Research Analyst (Media, Consumer Discretionary, and Internet) at Elara Capital as well as Poorvi Chothani, Founder and Managing Partner at LawQuest.
SHOW NOTES
(00:00) Stories of the Day
(01:00) Markets digest fresh round of tariff volatility
(04:00) OPEC cuts global oil demand growth targets. Why
(05:35) Goldman Sachs sets gold for $4,000 in a year
(08:27) The big changes in India’s advertising landscape
(20:12) India has only one airport in Global Top 50 at 32
(21:51) US bound, why you should pay careful attention to what this immigration lawyer is saying?
NOTE: This transcript contains the host's monologue and includes interview transcripts by a machine. Human eyes have gone through the script but there might still be errors in some of the text, so please refer to the audio in case you need to clarify any part. If you want to get in touch regarding any feedback, you can drop us a message on [email protected].
—
Good morning, it's Tuesday, the 15th of April and this is Govindraj Ethiraj headquartered and Broadcasting and streaming from Mumbai, India's financial capital and welcome back from a holiday and a long weekend. But this is a holiday shortened week as we have another holiday coming up on Friday.
Our top stories and themes of the day,
The stock markets digest a fresh round of tariff volatility.
Goldman Sachs sets gold prices for $4000 an ounce in a year.
OPEC cuts global oil demand growth targets, here's why. The big changes in India's advertising landscape.
US bound, why you should be paying careful attention to what this immigration lawyer is saying.
And India has only one airport in the global top 50 at 32.
More Tariff Volatility
The good thing about being a trader in these times is that you have to have supercomputing capability to process the multiple and changing inputs into what kind of position you would take on a stock industry or even country right now. Or you just wait and see what happens and follow our advice which was to stay out of the markets even to see where the indices are for two weeks starting last week and into this one. For instance, on Monday, as India enjoyed a market holiday added to a long weekend, Asia-Pacific markets climbed after US President Donald Trump paused tariffs on some consumer electronics.
Hong Kong stocks were up with the Hang Seng index going up almost 2.4%. The Hang Seng tech index is rising. Mainland China's CSI 300 is also rising. Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi and Australia's S&P struck the ASX 200, all of them up more than a percent or a percent and a half.
On Wall Street, the main indices were up on Monday morning, but not as much as they would have had President Trump's subsequent statement on tariffs not come. Remember, it's a long weekend by tariff standards. The first announcement opened up a window for electronics imports without the reciprocal tariffs, but the second one subsequently pointed out that there would be a sector of bucket-wise tariffs that would come soon, which was of course logical and expected since the core report has now discovered the ability to find logic even within these seemingly illogical moves.
So, the Dow Jones was up 301 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were also up on Monday morning. Trump exempted smartphones and computers as well as other devices and components like semiconductors from his new reciprocal tariffs, according to a US Customs and Border Protection guidance issued late Friday.
But then, a day later, both Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that the exemptions weren't permanent and that of course stirred up more uncertainty, according to CNBC. Trump said in a social post that these products are still subject to the existing 20% fentanyl tariffs that's on China and they're just moving to a different tariff bucket. So, India could have benefited since it was at a 0% tariff for electronics, including iPhones, that's as of Friday, but obviously only till Sunday, at least, as far as the celebrations go, because China's fentanyl tariff would have kept it at 20%, but then we don't know what the sector-wise tariffs will come at and when, and in which case, whether an iPhone is made in India or China, it could get hit similarly. Though it is, or again, it seems a little logical going by everything that's happened that China could see higher import tariffs going into the United States. Now, India is making progress in its bilateral talks with the US, as we hear, and it's quite likely it will be one of the few countries that will come out less bruised, largely because India has leeway to offer concessions, as we already have from Tesla cars to whisky to Harley Davidson bikes, and more importantly, because the domestic economy is large and we are less export-led than most other countries in the mix right now.
Oil Demand Growth Is Slashed
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast on Monday, citing the impact of data received for the first quarter and trade tariffs announced by the United States, and also reduced its global economic growth forecast for this year and next, according to Reuters. The OPEC, in its monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, down 150,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast. Not surprisingly, it also lowered its forecast for world economic growth for this year and next.
OPEC said that the global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook. Interestingly, while OPEC has moderated its forecast, its outlook is still at the higher end as it expects oil use to keep rising for coming years. The International Energy Agency, or IEA, in contrast, sees demand peaking this decade as the world switches to cleaner fuels.
Energy watchers usually wait to see how both the OPEC and the IEA are projecting consumption and demand, and OPEC is usually, and not surprisingly because it comprises the oil-producing countries, bullish. Meanwhile, oil prices were up on Monday, with Brent crude futures settling at $65.60, but under $66 a barrel.
More Ambitious Targets For Gold
Gold prices are still rolling high and are now all set to go higher. Investment banks Goldman Sachs and UBS Group have put out fresh bullish calls for gold attributing it to stronger-than-expected central bank demand and more investors switching to gold as a hedge against recession and geopolitical risks. Goldman analysts are now seeing gold rallying to $3,700 an ounce by the end of this year, with prices projected to hit $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026, while UBS is calling $3,500 an ounce by December this year, according to two separate notes on Friday reported by Bloomberg. Gold has already risen about 6.5% last week, with prices holding at a fresh record above $3,245 an ounce on Monday. Both banks, Goldman and UBS, had issued upgrades just recently in March. The Goldman analysts said that official sector purchases are likely to average about 80 tonnes per month this year, up from their previous estimate of 70 tonnes, and have also reiterated their long gold trade recommendation. They also said that rising recession risks would likely juice inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds.
Goldman economists were also seeing a 45% chance for recession in the United States, and if such a scenario does occur, ETF inflows could accelerate further and lift prices to $3,880 an ounce by year-end, according to the Bloomberg report, which also said that UBS is projecting strong demand from various market segments, including central banks, long-term asset managers, macro funds, private wealth, retail investors, thanks to all of that shifting global trade and geopolitical backdrops.
Meanwhile, liquidity conditions are thinner, said UBS, also because of limited mine supply growth and large amounts of gold tied up in central bank reserves and ETF holdings. Speaking about a recession in the United States, gold's rise obviously underpins the uncertainty in and around the U.S. economy. A growing majority of America's top executives now expect the U.S. economy to enter a recession in the near future, according to a survey released Monday quoted by CNBC. Of the more than 300 CEOs polled in April, 62% said they had forecasted a recession or other economic downturns in the next six months, according to Chief Executive, an industry group that runs the survey. That's up from 48% who said the same in March. The Chief Executive's data underscores the growing concerns within corporate America around the future of the U.S. economy, said CNBC. And obviously, the last few weeks have been particularly nerve-wracking for businesses small and large in the U.S. and, for that matter, in many parts of the world. CNBC reported that about three-fourths of CEOs surveyed said tariffs would hurt their businesses in 2025. About two-thirds said they did not support Trump's proposed levies, many of which are currently on pause.
Digital Advertising In India
For the first time has overtaken television advertising in totality, which is the advertising plus subscription revenue that the television industry earns. Earlier, digital ad spends had already overtaken the pure advertising spends on television. Now, digital ad spend growth in turn is being driven by big injections into e-commerce, and within that, quick commerce advertising.
A note from broking firm Elara Security says calendar year 2024 was pivotal for media and entertainment in many ways as eyeballs also started shifting with viewers now spending five hours daily on mobiles, of which 69% is on entertainment and social. The Elara report pulls from the latest Ernst & Young FICCI report on media and entertainment. The Elara report says digital media has decisively surpassed television, capturing about 32% of the roughly 80,000 crore rupees of total media revenue, led by accelerated OTT platform adoption in regional markets, rapid expansion in connected TV, and advertiser count on TVs has reduced by about 23% year-on-year.
So what do these trends mean? And also, where does this leave the effectiveness of traditional television advertising and that business model? I spoke with Karan Torani, Senior Vice President and Media Analyst at Elara Securities and I began by asking him what was driving these big changes.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
Karan Taurani: So very clearly, I think the trend is here to stay. Digital will continue to grow at the cost of e-commerce, social search, time spent, penetration opportunity, everything put together.
Govindraj Ethiraj: And what are the numbers like Karan at this point, particularly when you talk about overtaking?
Karan Taurani: So I think the media market is about 2.4 lakh crore in terms of size, in terms of INR. If you look at the digital media business it is about 80 to 90 thousand crores in terms of potential market. The TV market is about 70 to 75 thousand crores.
If you look at the mix here in terms of numbers, the TV market is heavily skewed towards the subscription revenue. Almost about 40-50% of the revenue for the TV market comes from subscriptions. Because people are used to paying for subscriptions on TV, the ARPUs are lower.
They get a lot of variety in terms of watching content on TV. In the case of digital rather, only about 12 to 15% of the revenue is coming from subscriptions. About 80-85% of the revenue is coming from advertising.
And that's primarily because people are still getting used to paying online. The market is heavily fragmented. You don't have too many platforms which are asking for a hefty ARPU.
And consumers are spoiled for choice. So I think once consolidation happens, you will see subscription revenue also scaling up on digital media.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And in that 80-90 thousand crores that you've talked about in digital advertising. So what's the biggest driver within that?
Karan Taurani: In terms of digital advertising, the market is about 70 to 80 thousand crores and the between thousand crores is subscription revenue. Now, if you look at the digital advertising market as a whole, it was growing at almost about 25-30% on a CAGR basis until about three to four years back in the post-COVID era. Pre-COVID era, the growth rates were around 30-35%.
The big driver for this growth rate, and just to give you a background or context, was the video advertising part. Since the launch of 4G, we have seen a massive increase in terms of video consumption, which has led to this entire digital advertising growth rate. Of course, social media, search, and advertising has also contributed to this kind of growth.
But in the recent past, or let's say in the last two years, the bigger growth driver for digital advertising has been, one is the e-commerce segment. Quick commerce has just taken off over the last two years. They are seeing good trends in terms of advertising.
The likes of Amazon, Kripkart, Myntra, all these companies are driving a big amount of advertising spends. Advertising spends, as you know, is a mirror in terms of customer traffic. So wherever the customer follows, the ad dollars also kind of follow that.
So very clearly, I think e-commerce, quick commerce, the momentum will continue in terms of driving better growth for digital advertising. The second driver or lever for digital advertising is the SME advertising. So if you look at the TV segment as a whole, we have between 10,000 to 12,000 advertisers on a whole in terms of a per-annum basis.
Digital advertising has got a huge untapped opportunity in terms of the SME advertising. We've got more than about 5 to 10 million plus advertisers waiting out there who want to actually spend on digital as a media. So I think these are two drivers from here on, e-commerce, quick commerce, and also the SME advertising, which will drive digital advertising, which will continue to grow in the range of 15 to 18% over the next three years.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. Just go back to that 70,000 to 80,000 crore rupees. What would be the contribution of the largest spenders in this, including Amazon, Kripkart and these quick commerce companies?
Karan Taurani: So I think a large share of the digital advertising is heavily skewed towards social and search, which is your Google, Facebook, and including YouTube put together. They contribute anywhere between 70% to 75% of digital advertising. So they're still monopolised in terms of the way they are in terms of share.
At the scale they operate, the user base they have, the customer base they have. E-commerce has just taken off over the last three years. And I think e-commerce advertising as a percentage of digital advertising stands at about 20% to 22%.
But the good part is this number is growing by almost about 35% to 40% because of a low base. And because of the eyeballs moving from search advertising to e-commerce advertising. I think as a habit, consumers are not searching for products on search as of now.
They are searching for products on the e-commerce platform, which is driving better advertising for them. That's the first thing. Second thing is that e-commerce advertising for an advertiser is very useful because it gives you better conversion rates, right?
In the case of YouTube, in the case of any video, you do campaigning, you get views, but you don't get actual real conversion. In the case of e-commerce, you get conversion, customers end up looking at a product, and end up buying a product. So I think these are reasons in terms of why e-commerce is going to be significantly strong in terms of advertising.
Just to give you a number in terms of the overall e-commerce advertising. So let's say the number is almost 12 to 14 pounds in terms of e-commerce advertising. Almost 70% to 75% of that will be dominated by Amazon and Flipkart because these are two very large e-commerce giants, having been operating for so many years.
And then there's a long tail of other e-commerce players like, you know, Mintra, Jio, and then you have the likes of quick commerce players as well contributing to this growth.
Govindraj Ethiraj: So would it be correct to say, or rather, let me ask you a question in two parts. One is what's your sense of how much these brands are spending in order to acquire customers at this point of time versus let's say what they were doing earlier in relative senses. And second is if you were to compare this with television and what brands spend there while that number is going down, what would you rate as the efficiency of the same advertising versus, I mean, one is within digital and how people are spending and the other is digital versus television.
Karan Taurani: So to your first question in terms of the cost of customer acquisition, I think the cost of customer acquisition has come down as compared to what we've seen about five years ago. And in quick commerce, it still remains to be slightly on the higher side because this segment is just evolving. As far as e-commerce is concerned, it's come down because of two reasons.
One is we are reasonably penetrated. If you look at India in terms of online shoppers, you're at 100, 110 million online shoppers about three to four years back. Today, we stand to bet about 200 million online shoppers.
There is still ample scope to penetrate because we have a smartphone user base of 550, 600 million today. So there is scope to penetrate, but we are a reasonable number here.
Govindraj Ethiraj: 200 million active online shoppers?
Karan Taurani: For e-commerce, yes. Yes, correct. That's the online shopper number.
If you look at other segments like quick commerce, they're at maybe 20, 30 million users. If you look at food tech, they're at 80, 90 million users. So different segments have different numbers of users.
So I think in terms of e-commerce, online shopping, overall basis, we have been reasonably penetrated. Of course, growth will continue from here on. Customer acquisition cost has also come down because of consolidation.
Until about three to four years back, we had too many e-commerce platforms. Now, we've got one end, we've got Amazon Flipkart. At the other end, we've got large phone numbers like Tata and Reliance operating their e-commerce platform.
So it's largely consolidated as compared to the fragmentation that we saw about three to four years back. Because of these two reasons, primarily, the cost of customer acquisition has come down. Now, as far as the effectiveness goes in terms of advertising for TV versus digital, we believe that digital advertising is far more effective because it's got a better measurement mechanism as compared to TV measurement in terms of advertising, which is largely BAC-led.
BAC is an agency which does random sampling of boxes. The boxes are not more than 40,000 households. In the case of digital, you can actually have real-time data.
You can monitor your advertiser in terms of what exactly is the conversion happening, how much sales are being driven because of the customer visiting that particular product or that particular app. Plus, you also give comfort to the advertiser in terms of ROI. So if somebody is spending 100 rupees on TV, that advertiser may not get a clear picture in terms of how the sales were driven or how it impacted the sales.
But if that same advertiser spends 100 rupees on digital, he has a clear understanding in terms of how the conversion is happening, how the sales are being driven from which market, from which type of customer, everything put together. So digital advertising is far more detail-driven as compared to TV advertising, which is more sampling-led.
Govindraj Ethiraj: But within that, you're also saying that people are preferring to advertise on the e-commerce platforms themselves rather than advertising on some other social platform and then hoping for that conversion to take place because it's so efficient.
Karan Taurani: Absolutely. So even within digital advertising, as I said, you are seeing a shift from social campaigning led advertising. In the case of YouTube, you will just watch a video, you will watch an advertisement, but you don't know whether the customer bought the product or not.
In the case of an e-commerce platform, there is some pop-up, there's an ad, the customer ends up clicking on that, and ends up buying the product. So the ROI is far better. The advertiser is aware, the advertiser gets data on a real-time basis, who bought the product and how can he tap the same customer again.
So it's very detailed, a lot of data-driven, AI-led techniques can be used in the case of e-commerce advertising, programmatic advertising, whereas campaigning is something which is more in terms of just putting something out over there, but you don't get the actual measurement of it.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. So if I'm looking for more direct purchase campaigns, then obviously I would put money onto e-commerce platforms. If I was building a brand, maybe I would do all the other stuff.
Okay. You mentioned BART and BART ratings. Is that something that people are still using or how actively are they using, if so?
Karan Taurani: So if you look at TV advertising as a whole, I think the reason why the decline has happened is because clearly the eyeballs are shifting away. Incrementally, you are seeing connected TV being added in terms of household. People have gone for cord cutting.
You see the number of pay TV households have come down sharply over the last three to four years by anywhere between 25-30%. So very clearly, that is one reason why advertisers are shifting. Now BART is something, yes, which is used as a measurement mechanism.
Larger FMCG companies still rely very heavily on TV advertising when they want to go for mass campaigning and panhandler campaigning. But over time, over the next three to four years, mass campaigning and brand building will also start to happen on digital in a very big manner. So I think digital is the future.
If we keep seeing cord cutting trends, if we see the number of TV households kind of declining, especially the urban households, where people are not using a box, but people are using connected TV directly and migrating from just using our set-top box, but going to a connected TV based on the broadband connection. So I think mass campaigning will start to happen. FMCG companies are evolving.
They're also shifting very heavily from TV to digital. And this big trend is here to stay.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Karan, it's been a pleasure speaking with you. Thank you so much for joining me.
Karan Taurani: Thank you, Govind.
India's Low Airport Ranking
Only four airports have made it to the latest Skytrax World Airport Awards 2025 in the prestigious list of the top 100 airports globally. New Delhi's Indira Gandhi International Airport leads the Indian contingent but is the only airport in the top 50 and that too at the 32nd position.
While none made it to the top 20, the rankings do reflect a significant improvement in the global standing of Indians. While Indian airports have not made it in the top 20, the rankings are seen to reflect a significant improvement in the global standing of Indian airports compared to previous years. The Skytrax Awards are considered a benchmark of sorts and they're based on passenger satisfaction, service quality and overall travel experience.
And hopefully India will do better next year, particularly with some of the newer airports coming online, including the Bangalore one. Get ready to explore how blockchain is more than just crypto and how it could be a game changer for the future of business. Special weekly segment, we break down real world applications being built on blockchain that are set to transform industries from finance and insurance to agriculture and beyond.
Whether it's smart contracts, automating payouts or decentralised systems making identity and trust seamless, we'll show you how this technology is shaping the way business gets done. So if you are curious about where the future is headed and how blockchain is powering it, tune in every Wednesday for fresh insights, real examples and conversations with experts leading this revolution. Only on The Core Report, brought to you in partnership with Algorand.
Visiting The US Will Not Be The Same Anymore
The Department of Homeland Security in the United States has yet again issued a warning to all foreign nationals to register themselves under the Alien Registration Act, which also requires 14-year-olds and minors to list themselves or face legal consequences. The DHS has said that all foreign nationals present in the United States for longer than 30 days or whenever entering the country to register with the federal government under the Alien Registration Act. For those already in the country for over 30 days, the deadline was April 11th.
Now, will all of this affect Indian travellers, including business travellers to the United States? And before we come to that, Indian students in the United States are seeing their visas revoked and their student status terminated, leaving students there and parents here anxious. Equally, what about students who are set to travel now to start fresh terms?
How should they be viewing their stints in the United States as students and what should they be doing or not? I reached out to Poorvi Chothani, founder and managing partner of Immigration Law from Lockwest, based in Mumbai and the United States and began by asking her, firstly, whether she had seen anything like this in her career.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
Poorvi Chothani: No, I haven't. And I've been doing this for 20 years. There have been drastic steps in the past, historically, when they did the Chinese ban and did the Japanese internment during World War II, etc.
So there have been bizarre actions in the past. But this is something different. And I think technology has a part to play in the rapidity of how things are progressing.
Govindraj Ethiraj: So we've been seeing quite a few instances of revocations of visas. And in some cases, evidently, those being found out much after the actual event has happened. People seem to be discovering that their visa actually does not exist.
So my first question is, or a sub-question is really, what is the recourse to such students? And that's one, those who are already there. Secondly, how should people, students here who are about to start another year or a situation?
Poorvi Chothani: So the situation is very, very difficult for people whose visas have been revoked. But visa revocation is the easy part. If the visa is revoked, they can continue to stay in the United States.
Because their stay in the United States is not defined by the visa. A visa is only an entry document. As long as everything else is in place, they can continue to stay.
The problem is, in addition to visa revocation, many students have SEVIS termination. SEVIS is the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System that the Department of Homeland Security uses to track all foreign nationals in the education system. And that record being terminated has a direct impact on the legal status in the country.
That is more alarming. Now your second part of the question of what do you advise these people? My advice to them is three steps.
One is to immediately go to your designated student officer. Every university, every educational institution has a dedicated officer for international students. In different universities, it is called different things, but DSO is a common term to define them all or describe them all.
Go and speak to them about it. Some universities are saying, OK, your SEVIS has been terminated, but you can still continue to finish your course. You can go to class and continue studying.
That's a good situation if that happens. But does that make you legal? No.
It only allows you to finish your education. You're still going to be illegal in the country. But as long as your illegal term is less than six months, you're going to be in an OK position to get back to America.
If you've been there for six months or more, but less than 12 months, you're subject to a three-year bar. And then after a year, you're subject to a 10-year bar. So you want to avoid that.
So that's step number one. Go to the DSO. Make sure you're not accruing more than six months of illegal stay.
Second thing is contact an immigration and a criminal attorney. There are some combinations of both. We call them criminalisation attorneys.
Find one like that and talk to them whether your case is eligible for reinstatement of SEVIS, which is a bit difficult to do, but it is an option in some cases. And third, if your situation is really, very bad, leave.
Govindraj Ethiraj: So people are, or rather a lot of students, thousands of students perhaps, have already got admission in or about to get admission for this year. That's the term starting maybe September or August or September 2025. How should people be now approaching a stint, educational stint in the United States as opposed to ever before?
Poorvi Chothani: With great caution and some trepidation. It's not easy. But if people are coming from India, let's say, with a clean slate, and they keep their slate clean enough, they don't have any run-ins with the police or with the government authorities.
They're driving a car. They make sure that they don't get into accidents. They don't drive after drinking or being intoxicated in any way or under the influence.
And they keep their car papers in order, which is also very important because somebody got a SEVIS record terminated because his insurance papers had expired and the police picked him up for that. So if they are willing to do this, so basically put your head down, study, be the goody-goody child and come back, then yes, America is still full because the education system is still off. But otherwise, it's hard.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Yeah. And also don't participate in protests and things like that.
Poorvi Chothani: No protests, no rave parties. Because just recently, three, four days ago in Davis in California, there was a rave party and there was a police shooting. So all the students over there have a question.
And if you're a foreign student over there, you have unnecessary interaction with the police. So stay away from all these big parties and no protests and nothing on social media. That is critical.
That is even critical for students who are applying for a visa. If their social media handles have any anti-Semitic comments, any pro-Muslim comments, any pro-Palestine comments, even a simple like, you're not getting a visa. And if you're in America, you're being thrown out.
So keep your social media handles extremely clean. If possible, don't be on social media. It's the devil.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. The flip side, you're saying that if a student or a potential student is not or has not committed any of these likely offences and kept their heads down, clean social media, then their path should be fairly clear.
Poorvi Chothani: Yes, absolutely. But then we are going to run in the abolition of OPT. But yes, at least they'll be able to branch it and not be thrown out.
We've passed one hurdle, but there's another hurdle they're putting on the way where we've got the bill to scrap OPT, postgraduate OPT, which could have a direct impact on students.
Govindraj Ethiraj: How does that work?
Poorvi Chothani: So OPT is what they get is one year of optional practical training at the end of every graduation level. And if you're a STEM student, you get an additional 24 months. But if they scrap OPT, then students, as soon as they graduate, have to leave unless they've secured a job and a visa, which is hard.
So generally, OPT students try their luck in an H1B doctorate one year, and STEM OPT try their luck three times. And many of them strike it lucky. So without OPT, it's going to be very hard.
OPT also is an opportunity to bring practical experience and they get paid on OPT. So some of them use whatever they earn in OPT to pay off student loans. So that could be another big hurdle around the corner.
It's at the bill stage just now, so it's still not the law.
Govindraj Ethiraj: And let me come to two other categories, which I'm assuming are fairly large as when it comes to Indians travelling to the US or visiting the US. So one is H1B, which is also a matter of negotiation at a bilateral level. And the second is a green card.
A lot of Indians who are actually visiting the US only to get their green cards renewed, so to speak, but are mostly living outside. Many of them could be older parents and so on. What about these two categories?
Poorvi Chothani: So H1B people should not have a very difficult time as long as they're going back to a qualified job. And they also don't have any police record or DUI or anything. Because after the students, they're going to come after the H1B.
So H1B people are going to soon start getting noticed. So as long as their record is clean, and they're going back on an H1B, or they have an H1B, they're going to be fine. Again, keep your head down, do your work, don't get involved in too much activism, etc.
So that's fine for the H1B. The second part is the green card holders. Now, here's the problem.
Once a person has been given a green card, that person is expected to reside in America all the time. A green card is given to you to do that. And if you don't do that, you're actually just creating problems for yourself.
Whether it's the current changing environment, or whether it was the old law. That is a problem from the beginning. So what these people have to do is, they've got to make sure that they spend more time in the United States than outside.
If that's not possible, the next time they're in America, they should apply for a re-entry permit, explaining why they need to spend so much time outside the country. And that generally gives you an opportunity to live outside the US for two years without harming your green card. If that is also not possible, then I would suggest giving up the green card.
Because it's easier to travel back and forth on a tourist visa, except during COVID when they didn't allow tourists in, and they only allowed green card holders in. But honestly, if you're not going to live in America with the green card, you're going to be harassed at every entry now. Even in the past you were, and I shouldn't say the word harass, but you're going to be put into secondary interrogation, which is part of the process.
Because each time the officer has to determine that you maintain your permanent residence status. That means that the USA is your primary home country, and not your secondary home country. You've got to prove it each time.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right, and you talked about tourists as well. So there's a report that anyone living for more than 30 days or staying for more than 30 days in the US has to register themselves. And of course, carry e-papers all the time.
Is that applicable to regular visitors and business travellers and so on?
Poorvi Chothani: Not at all. There is misinformation in the media, unfortunately, that's causing a lot of fear. You're like the third person I'm talking to in the media trying to clarify this.
That is, if you have travelled to the United States with a valid visa and you were issued a Form I-94, that is your entry and exit history. And that is only available online. Earlier they used to give you a small white card which they would staple your passport to, but now they don't.
So you must log into the cdp.gov website and track your I-94 status. Because once you have both these, you are considered registered. You do not have to register again.
That registration is for people who are, let's say you have a child who's less than 14 and he comes with you to Orlando and stays on with his aunt for two months. That child has to register. Or let's say you had a child who was just 10 days short of his 14th birthday and he's travelled to the U.S. and he's become 14. He has to register after 30 days of being there. So that registration is only for small categories. It also applies to Canadians who cross the border without the need of a visa.
They never need a visa, so they're never fingerprinted or anything. They don't have an I-94 record. Those people need to register.
If you're a Canadian student studying in the United States, you have a visa because you can't study without a visa. Then you don't need to register. And this is really mainly to weed out the illegal immigrants who are all paying taxes, etc., but they're not within the immigration system, so nobody can catch them. This is one way of trying to weed them out of the system. And they're also getting data from the IRS to see how many undocumented immigrants are paying taxes out of the net of the immigration authorities. That's another thing that is in development as we talk, or already is in place.
Govindraj Ethiraj: So you're saying that basically, if someone is a regular visitor to the US for tourism purposes or for business travel under B-1, B-2, then really there is no change from before as long as you come and leave within six months.
Poorvi Chothani: Right, but you've got to make sure you have your visa with you. And I would take a printout of the I-94 also. Generally, when we are travelling in America, we're not going to carry our passport everywhere.
So ideally, you carry your passport and a printout of your I-94 record just because if you're questioned, you have it. But if you're not comfortable doing that, because that's not a mandatory requirement, then I would suggest you at least have images of that on your phone so that if you are caught, you can show it to them. And with some numbers on those documents, they can run checks on you.
So I would recommend that.
Govindraj Ethiraj: So in that sense, I mean, people do have to now be ready for this new world, wherein they have to carry papers and records of their visits in the past and so on.
Poorvi Chothani: I would do that. That would be prudent. It's not the matter.
See, what they say is, if you have registered, you must always have proof of registration with you. Then they say that a person who's come on a visa and has an I-94 is deemed to be registered. So then my, if I'm the lawyer, I would say that Urbine registration is also registration to carry your registration documents.
What is that? Your visa and your I-94 record. So that's the logic why I'm recommending this.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Poorvi, thank you so much for joining me.
Poorvi Chothani: You're welcome. Always a pleasure to talk to you.
