Will Heatwaves Disrupt India's Power Supply?

Even as the India Meteorological Department on Sunday indicated relief for the coming week as it lifted heatwave warnings and forecast rains in the northeast region, the country is reeling from the soaring temperatures and heatwave alerts witnessed last week. The deadly heat came with a sharp spike in power demand with peak power demand touching a new high last Tuesday at 215.882 GW.

In a summer that might be hotter than usual, several parts of the country recorded maximum temperatures above normal last week and a heatwave alert was issued in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Sikkim, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.

With the rise in heat, power demand has risen by 23% in just the first fortnight of April, Business Standard reported. India reached peak energy demand of 4,836 million units last Tuesday, an increase of 8% over the previous year. Furthermore, the anticipated record demand this year is 229 GW, as per Mint.

Maximum Demand Met During the Day (In GW):

Source: Grid Controller of India

Several states including Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh have reached record highs in power demand and consumption in the past week. While Maharashtra's peak power demand reached 29,116 MW on Tuesday, Tamil Nadu's peak power demand crossed 19,000 MW for the first time on Wednesday since records have been maintained for this data. Kerala saw record consumption of power with demand rising sharply to 100.3586 crore units and in Andhra Pradesh, power demand has reached a record high of 245 million units this month.

With the rise in power demand come power outages. On Wednesday, as the mercury reached 38.8 degree Celsius in Mumbai and the city recorded its all-time high peak electricity demand of 3,893MW, parts of Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane and Raigad faced power outages lasting up to 3 hours. Meanwhile in Noida, residents of several sectors endured power cuts lasting up to 4 hours on Tuesday.

How Will Power Sector be Affected

As per officials in Grid India, April is a crucial month since thermal (mainly coal) is the only energy source. "The Centre was apprehensive of the April demand but it is being handled well. On Tuesday, the grid handled the highest ever electricity demand without any hiccups. There is enough power and coal in the system. Now gas is running too. North region will have some cooler days so that should shave off some peak demand," an official told Business Standard.

The high temperatures and impending heatwaves could put a strain on the country's already burdened power sector and have raised concerns that the country might face shortages again. Several parts of the country saw blackouts following coal supply disruptions due to a deadly heatwave in May last year.

The Centre this year has ordered India's coal-fired power plants to function at full power through the summer for the second consecutive year to ensure smooth availability of electricity supply. Nearly 75% of India's electricity is generated by coal. However, coal stockpiles available at thermal power stations was 33.5 million tons by mid-March, well below the government's target of 45 million tons.

Meanwhile, demand continues to rise. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in a 2021 report projected that power demand in the country would rise at an annual rate of 6.5% between 2022 and 2024, after consumption saw a dip of 2% in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

To meet the growing demand, annual electricity generation numbers in the country have continued to steadily rise in the last decade, barring the dip in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic. The generation during 2022-23 was 1624.158 BU as compared to 1491.859 BU generated during 2021-22, representing a growth of about 8.87%, as per power ministry data.

The Power Ministry has set an electricity generation target (Including RE) for the year 2023-24 at 1750 Billion Units (BU). This would mean a growth of around 7.2% over actual generation of 1624.158 BU in 2022-23.