Increasing Heatwaves Affect Productivity Of India's Workforce

Sandeep, 18, had his days neatly planned out for the last one year. He takes out his family's vegetable cart at 9 am every morning and wheels it around a neighbourhood in Dahisar, a Mumbai suburb, until 2 pm. After that he attends classes at a local college, followed by a game of late-night cricket. The last two months have, however, thrown his schedule out of sync, because of the scorching heat. 

"I find it hard to sleep at night and wake up on time in the morning because of the heat," he said. Working outdoors all day also gives him headaches and makes it harder to focus on his studies.

Sandeep isn't alone. Millions of Indians who have to work outdoors, no matter what the weather is, are being affected by the heat. 

Several street vendors, daily wage workers, gig workers and other informal workers The Core spoke to in Mumbai and Hyderabad, complained of heat rashes, lack of sleep hampering work and headaches. Most can't afford to take more than a day off. 

18-year-old Sandeep takes short breaks at shaded corners in the residential area where he wheels his cart. (Photo: Jessica Jani)

"If this was a one-time thing, I would take time off, but this is everyday," said 27-year-old Shanti Vishwakarma, a domestic worker from Mumbai. "I can't wait for June so I can finally catch up on my sleep," she said. The tin roof of her home, which she shares with her husband and six-year-old child, makes it feel like a furnace at night. 

The family has suffered from headaches and heat rashes because of the heat. They have visited the doctor, racking up bills worth Rs 1500 in the last two months - a significant sum. 

They aren't the only ones staring at a monetary strain. Rising temperatures make it nearly impossible to work during certain hours, with health and maintenance costs going up and productivity dipping. 

Forty-year-old Santos, an Uber driver from Hyderabad, said he normally works through the day. But he has stopped working between 10 am and 5 pm in the last week. Waiting for rides in the car without air conditioning is unbearable. He pays an additional Rs 300 a day in fuel costs to run the AC. 

Indian Cities Are Getting Hotter

Mumbai has experienced at least four heatwave warnings this year alone. The IMD issued heatwave warnings earlier this week for several central and northern states in India. Heatwaves are normal in summer, but the frequency and intensity are increasing. Cities are more affected as they are warming faster than neighbouring areas. 

"If you look at past trends from 1951–2016, the frequency of hot days and hot nights increased significantly," Dr Chandni Singh, senior researcher at the Indian Institute for Human Settlements, told The Core. 

The average number of heat wave days was the highest in a decade in 2022, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. In India, there were 190 heat wave days in 2022, more than six times as many as in 2021.

Singh pointed to research that shows that by 2050, hot days are projected to increase four-fold and as many as 24 urban centres are projected to breach average summertime highs of at least 35°C. 

The sixth assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that 64% of Asia's population will be urban by 2050 and climate change will amplify the urban heat-island effect across Asian cities (especially South and East Asia) at 1.5°C and 2°C temperature rise.  

Several heat action plans (HAPs) lack vulnerability assessments, which can locate who would be most affected by heatwaves. (Photo: Jessica Jani)

What is most insidious about heat is that it is invisible and affects different people differently. "You might have the same temperature over four or five localities, but one or two of them are actually much hotter than the rest…and those one or two might actually have a group of people that are far more exposed than the rest of the neighbourhood," said Aditya Pillai, a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), who recently assessed 37 heat action plans (HAP) from across 18 states in India.  

Of the 37 HAPs critically assessed by Pillai and co-author of the CPR report on HAPs, Tamanna Dalal, only two had vulnerability assessments. Vulnerability assessments can locate who would be most affected by heatwaves and interventions can be designed for them. 

Increasing Heat Affects Workers, In Turn The Economy

Many of the HAPs are public health focused and don't take a wider economic view. Pillai said. "So they don't necessarily always get into the different types of labour that are heat exposed and to what extent and so on." 

Continuous exposure to heat without cooling can cause heat stroke, cramps, heat rashes and heat burns, dizziness, migraine, and decreased alertness, among other things. 

Chronic health impacts would be arthritis, kidney diseases, hypertension, diabetes, and worsening of mental health conditions. Mahesh Deshpande, a retired medical officer of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) told The Core, "In humid places such as Mumbai, heat related illnesses occur more frequently and intensity of these illnesses is more." 

As per the Climate Transparency Report 2022, India suffered an income loss of US $159 billion, or 5.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP), in the service, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction sectors due to extreme heat in 2021. 

"It is estimated that heat stress will lead to productivity loss of 80 million jobs worldwide by 2030, of which 34 million will be in India," said Singh. 

According to a World Bank report in December around 380 million people in the Indian workforce (75%) are dependent on labour that is frequently exposed to high heat. India may account for 34 million of the anticipated 80 million job losses worldwide due to heat stress-related productivity drop by 2030.

Are We Prepared To Face The Economic Challenges?

According to Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest report on currency and finance in May 2023, climate change manifestations like an increase in extreme weather events would have implications for growth and inflation, with multiple channels of risk transmission. The industrial sector could see an increase in operational costs and reducing profitability. Production processes could also be impacted and relocated due to climate-related losses, the report said. 

"India could lose anywhere around 3 per cent to 10 per cent of its GDP annually by 2100 due to climate change in the absence of adequate mitigation policies," the RBI report said. "Furthermore, Indian agriculture (along with construction activity) as well as industry are particularly vulnerable to labour productivity losses caused by heat related stress." 

Up to 4.5% of India's GDP could be at risk by 2030 owing to lost labour hours from extreme heat and humidity conditions. 

Meanwhile, the services sector could see a strain on financial services, due to an increase in insurance claims for instance, or disruptions in travel, transport and business services. 

The report also points to labour productivity decline due to climate-related health hazards, and climate migration (out-migration from areas that are significantly prone to climate risks to lesser affected regions). 

Road construction and repair work ramped up in Mumbai in the last weeks of May, ahead of the impending monsoon season. (Photo: Jessica Jani)

Farhan Shaikh, managing director of Primetime Infra Solutions, who works with the Mumbai metro projects and real estate, said that he doesn't see a significant economic impact on the business due to extreme heat as yet. Speaking to The Core he said it was likely that in the near future it could lead to an estimated 25% dip in man hours. This could impact income and profit as well. 

Even though most unskilled labourers working on projects undertaken by his company have not taken time off, productivity was reduced to an estimated 60-70% in scorching heat, he said. 

The Core reached out to several real estate developers for this story who either declined to comment or did not respond to queries at the time of publishing. 

Businesses may fail to see the threat posed by extreme heat and climate change immediately. Nafees Ansari, who runs a garment manufacturing unit in Mumbai's Govandi, told The Core that he doesn't foresee any disruptions or labour loss due to heat in the coming years. "Although, unpredictable rains could possibly disrupt supply chains, but we'll have to wait and see," he said.

What Is The Way Forward?

There are, at the moment, no legal safeguards or guidelines on labour and heat in India. "As far as policy is concerned, there is no separate policy to deal with heat or climate change," said Bilal Khan, president of Kamgar Sanrakshan Sammaan Sangh, an informal sector workers' union. 

Even guidelines under The Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code, 2019 (which, it must be noted, is one of four labour codes currently stalled in Parliament) haven't factored in anything to do with heatwaves, temperature, or climate change, Khan pointed out. 

Similarly, the HAPs do not have any legal foundation, and are not legally enforceable, Pillai highlighted. This means that the guidelines in these HAPs – mostly focused on immediate health interventions during heatwave-like conditions – aren't binding for employers. 

The HAPs also heavily focus on information dissemination using different channels, like SMS, billboards, social media and radio. However, most of the workers The Core spoke to for this story were barely aware of what heatwaves entailed and about the warnings issued in their state this year. 

"There's an issue with just sort of saying, ‘Okay, let's just disseminate this as widely as possible through existing channels, and not exactly knowing where the people who can't absorb that information are, because those are the people who need second and third layers of protection," Pillai said.

There is also a need for more long-term solutions implementation to tackle extreme heat. "A lot of these solutions kick in when a heatwave is announced and tend to be reactive and short-term (for a particular heatwave or summer season) rather than long-term and proactive (i.e. preparing for today and tomorrow's heat)," said Singh. 

Pillai echoed her thoughts. "You can't always be dealing with the outcome, sometimes you have to prevent them from happening as well," he said. This could mean, for instance, urban afforestation, building cool roofs, and implementing design changes that reduce the urban heat island effect.

"The science and solutions on extreme heat are quite advanced, what we need now is public demand, political will, and administrative capacity to use this science to deliver solutions that do not deepen inequalities," said Singh.